Google Ads has banned ads for prediction markets and related products in Connecticut. The change was posted on October 7 and took effect the same day, with no transition period. There are now five excluded US states.
This isn't a new permission
Some retellings claim Google has "just legalized" prediction market ads. That's not true. Google announced the rules in early January, and they've been in force since January 21, 2026. Since then the policy has only narrowed:
- January 21 — launch, with Nevada excluded from day one;
- June 2 — Ohio banned;
- July 13 — Michigan and New York;
- October 7 — Connecticut.
Why Connecticut
Google gives no reason. But according to PPC Land, the state is running a real campaign against prediction markets. In August, a federal judge ruled that sports event contracts are unlicensed gambling. In September, the state attorney general sued Kalshi, and the regulator sent cease-and-desist orders to nine companies, including Polymarket, Coinbase, Crypto.com and Robinhood. Those orders explicitly covered advertising.
Who can advertise
Under the current Google Ads policy, the rules are:
- US only, excluding Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio. Other countries aren't supported yet.
- Only two types of advertisers: a CFTC-authorized Designated Contract Market (DCM) whose primary business is listing event contracts, or an NFA-registered brokerage offering access to contracts on such an exchange.
- Google certification. You apply through a form, separately for each location. Ads run only after approval.
- Politics and elections. Election markets also fall under political content rules and election ads verification.
What's prohibited
- binary options and fixed-return contracts: digital options, all-or-nothing options and the like;
- gambling, lotteries and anything not treated as a regulated prediction market under local law;
- sites and blogs offering signals and tips for trading event contracts;
- affiliate sites and broker reviews — Google names them as a direct example of prohibited content.
What others got wrong
- "Legalized" isn't news. The permission has been in place since January. The fresh change is actually a new ban.
- The state list is incomplete. Reports mention Nevada, Ohio and New York but leave out Michigan and Connecticut.
- The policy says nothing about tax returns or incorporation documents. Google only describes certification through a form.
- "Banned with no right to restore" isn't in the rules either. Under the policy, violating ads are disapproved, and you can fix them or appeal the decision.
What it means for affiliate marketers
- The door is closed for affiliates. Only licensed exchanges and brokers can advertise. Review sites and affiliate sites are explicitly banned.
- The geo keeps shrinking. Five states have dropped out in nine months. If you work with these brands, watch for policy updates: changes take effect the day they're posted.
- Don't confuse it with gambling. Google has a separate policy and certification for casinos and betting. Prediction markets are their own category with their own rules.